2022-07-18 - admin

每经评论员 杜恒峰

在这轮银行理财、债券基金的净值回撤潮中,“富荣中短债基金A份额”21日单日净值大跌12%,这意味着一天之内该基金不但亏掉了自2021年12月8日成立以来的所有收益,还亏掉了大量本金。对于一只风险低于混合型基金及股票型基金的债券基金来说,即便债市最近波动较大,一天之内如此大幅度的净值下跌也是极为罕见的。

截至三季度末,富荣中短债公布的持仓前五只债券,净值之和占总净值的19.07%,这些债券均正常还本付息,不过这些债券确实经历了一定程度的下跌。比如持仓占比5.28%的第一大重仓债“19渤海银行永续债”,其收益率(上清所估值,下同)从11月7日的3.6019%,大幅上升至17日的4.0875%,上升48.56个基点,债券估值从102.0144元跌到101.1307元。

尽管如此,但从公开的市场数据看,富荣中短债所持证券的价格波动,远不能解释21日12%的跌幅。是不是为了应对大额赎回,以远低于市场价格的超低价抛售所持证券?是不是赎回部分未分担债券处置过程中的损失,导致存量部分损失被动扩大?这些还有待富荣基金给予更为详细的披露。

不论背后细节如何,流动性问题无疑是富荣中短债此次净值大跌的核心所在。在产品说明书中,富荣中短债“投资于具有良好流动性的金融工具”,但这种流动性都是相对的,即市场正常运作时流动性足够,但遇到较为极端的行情时,流动性可能迅速枯竭。除了市场这一客观约束条件,该基金本身的“网红”属性利弊也同样显著。从今年4月开始,该基金的净值增幅超过业绩比较基准,在三季度吸引了大量投资者进场,其份额从二季度末的2.32亿份迅速膨胀至三季度末的47.61亿份。

迅速扩张的规模隐含了对超额收益的要求,由此带来的结果是:基金经理在应对可能的风险时,行动会滞后,因为过早调仓可能让自己错失一直以来的好行情,进而让自己成为“孤独的失败者”,而不调仓无非是和其他债券基金一样净值有所下跌,“平凡的失败者”于己也不是最糟糕的结果,截至三季度末,富荣中短债持有的固定收益资产占总资产的94.56%,在扣除5%的现金/1年内到期的政府债券后(基金流动性管理要求如此),这已是满仓,基金经理的操作谈不上稳健。对投资者来说,一旦预期中的超额收益没有实现,反而还有账面亏损,集体赎回也就成了很自然的结果。

富荣中短债此次遭遇的滑铁卢也再次提醒投资者和管理人,固定收益类产品同样有很大的风险。基金经理在规模和分散投资上应当做好平衡,也要敢于逆向操作,以长期稳定收益为基本目标。此外,当债券基金收益较高的时候,往往也就是净值回落压力逐步增大的时候,追高不可取,但从长期投资的角度出发,在回调时买入可能才是更为理性的选择。

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